Warsh Is In. Waller Went Hawkish. The Hiking Conversation Just Got Serious. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair on May 22, pledging a "reform-oriented Fed" that limits forward guidance and keeps officials within their mandate. His first day on the job came with a gift nobody wanted. Same day: Governor Waller said rate cuts "should no longer be the default plan" and refused to rule out hikes if inflation doesn't abate. Michigan's final May consumer sentiment printed 44.8 against a 48.2 expectation, a record low. One-year inflation expectations were revised up to 4.8%. The 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007. Gold and BTC both pulled back. Everything moved in the same direction, on the same day. Futures are now pricing a 25bps hike by year-end, with October as the earliest live meeting. That's a complete narrative inversion from where 2026 started. But here's the part I keep coming back to: Warsh's stated policy of limiting forward guidance means less visibility into the path, not more. The Fed just became harder to read at the exact moment markets most want clarity. For crypto the headwind is real. When the risk-free rate climbs and guidance dries up, non-yielding assets get repriced. Whether institutional conviction from names like SpaceX, Grayscale, and a16z is enough to absorb that pressure is the open question heading into Warsh's first FOMC on June 16-17. #FedHikesBackOnTheTable @OKX Orbit