币毒

This morning I took a look around, and the market sentiment is a bit more stable than yesterday. BTC has returned to around $76,741, up 1.8% in 24h; ETH is at 2116, up 2.4% in 24h; SOL at 85.8, BNB at 655.8. The total market cap has returned to $2.65 trillion, with the market up about 1.8% in 24h. BTC market dominance is 58.1%, and funds are still clearly favoring main chain assets. On the news front, last night's BTC rebound is somewhat related to a warming risk appetite. CoinDesk mentioned that Trump said the US-Iran peace agreement is "basically settled," so the market initially traded on easing geopolitical risks, which helped Bitcoin climb. But don’t get too carried away with this rally. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of $2.26 billion over the past two weeks, indicating that mid-term funds haven’t fully turned bullish. The current position looks more like a rebound confirmation rather than a reckless acceleration. Altcoins are starting to heat up again. NEAR surged nearly 15% in a single day, and high-volatility assets like PENGU, AI-related projects, and Hyperliquid are drawing attention again. My simple feeling is: the big coin needs to stabilize first for altcoins to have the qualification to continue performing; if BTC turns down again, the fast-rising altcoins will also fall quickly. Today, let’s first see if 76,000 can hold. If it holds, the market will continue moving towards "mainstream catch-up + rotation of popular themes"; if it doesn’t hold, it will still be about seizing rhythm within the volatility.

After this wave with Futu, Tiger, and Changqiao, I increasingly feel that many things are actually quite realistic. What is most encouraged now is basically buying a house, buying a car, getting married, paying social security, and trading A-shares; but what is truly restricted and monitored are overseas accounts, US stocks, off-exchange gold, cryptocurrencies, and foreign internet. Sometimes you realize that if something has no value at all, usually no one cares whether you touch it or not. Of course, I’m not saying all restricted things are necessarily good, nor am I encouraging anyone to defy any rules. It’s just that gradually you realize that the "right to choose" itself is actually a scarce resource. Many people think rules restrict actions, but in reality, many times they restrict a person's vision and the boundaries of their thinking. You don’t have to do it, but at least you should know that you actually have other paths to choose from.

Morning, the market first pulled back a bit. BTC 5,309 (-2.5%), ETH ,062 (-3.0%), BNB 50 (-0.9%), SOL 4.4 (-2.8%). The total market cap returned to around 2.60 trillion USD, 24h trading volume about 85.5 billion USD, BTC market dominance 58.0%, fear and greed index at 28, sentiment turning back towards fear. I see three points in the news today. First, CoinDesk data shows that after the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh took office, risk assets continued to be under pressure, and the market is first digesting macro expectations. Second, SEC commissioner Hester Peirce responded to the delay in crypto regulations and the controversy over "synthetic tokens," regulatory discussions are still ongoing, short-term this looks more like emotional disturbance. Third, the trend heat hasn't dissipated, coins like NEAR and HYPE are still among the top searches on CoinGecko, indicating that funds in the market haven't disappeared but are continuing to look for strong narratives during the pullback. My feeling is: this is not a lack of opportunity, but don't rush to heavily buy in. First, see if BTC can hold 75,000; if it holds, then talk about rotation; if it doesn't hold, altcoins will likely continue to bleed. Today, controlling the pace is more important than chasing a miracle trade.

The CSRC has really cracked down hard on Futu, Tiger, and Changqiao this time. The most critical part is not the rectification, but the phrase "confiscate illegal gains both domestic and overseas." Originally, many people thought the worst would be restricting domestic business, but now even the overseas income is included, which changes the whole tone. After the news came out, the market reaction was very direct, with stock prices plummeting. To some extent, this wave actually seems to be diverting traffic to Crypto. The tighter TradFi gets, the more people might engage with on-chain US stocks, RWA, stablecoins, and these kinds of things in the future.

The market on May 22, to put it simply, is still one thing: BTC hasn't crashed, altcoins continue to diverge. BTC is currently moving sideways around $77,000, with a slight pullback in 24 hours, but no panic selling pressure. The total market cap is about $2.67 trillion, and trading volume has even increased slightly compared to the previous day, indicating that money hasn't left, it's just more selective. The strongest recently is still HYPE. Ranked first on CoinGecko's popular list, and CoinDesk is also mentioning it continuing to hit new highs. The market is like this now: big coins are stable, and among small coins only the strongest narratives can keep attracting funds. Another point worth watching is that traditional finance is still pushing onto the blockchain. MoonPay has started providing banks and fintech companies with stablecoin, tokenized asset, and DeFi access; Blockchain has also submitted a confidential IPO filing in the US. This signal doesn't immediately pump the market but is positive for the industry's mid-term outlook. So my judgment today remains unchanged: this is not a full takeoff market, but more like a phase where funds hold core assets and strong leaders. Don't chase random small coins, focus on the main line, and wait for BTC to choose its direction first.

Good morning, the market is still showing relatively strong fluctuations. BTC has returned to around $77,900, up 1.58% in 24h; ETH at $2140, up 1.53%; BNB at 652.6, up 2.15%; SOL at 86.56, up 2.90%. The total market capitalization across the network is about $2.68 trillion, up 1.55% in 24h, with BTC market dominance at 58.25%. There are several interesting points in today's news. SpaceX confirmed in its IPO filing that it holds 18,712 BTC, valued at approximately $1.29 billion at fair value as of the end of Q1. Large companies putting BTC on their balance sheets is a trend that continues. In the US, regulatory groundwork for crypto is also progressing. The Federal Reserve proposed a lighter version of a payment account scheme, allowing non-traditional institutions access to the payment clearing system; the new version of the Parity Act in Congress also brings stablecoin and small payment tax exemption research back to the table. Additionally, custody platform Copper is reportedly seeking a sale of about $500 million, indicating that institutional-grade custody and clearing infrastructure integration is accelerating. My own feeling: the short-term is still risk-on recovery, with the narrative continuing to focus on three main lines: "institutional allocation + regulatory refinement + infrastructure integration." As long as BTC stays above $77,000, sentiment is not bad, but we should also be wary of large IPOs diverting market liquidity.

Today's market is still weak and sideways. BTC is hovering around 76,700, showing no major drop but also no sign of strengthening. The more realistic situation is: bears haven't continued to push down, bulls haven't taken over, and the market is stuck like this. Among the major coins, ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE are mostly drifting down, indicating that risk appetite hasn't returned. Moreover, trading volume has shrunk by over 27%, which looks worse than the price itself. Because a volume-shrinking downtrend is the most frustrating—it won't shock you all at once but will gradually wear down sentiment. Additionally, regulatory pressures are still adding obstacles. Elizabeth Warren continues to attack crypto bank charters like Coinbase and Ripple. Such news may not directly crash the market, but in a weak environment, it acts as negative feedback. So my current view is simple: This is not stabilization, just weak sideways movement. Until clear signs of strengthening appear, don't prematurely interpret sideways trading as an opportunity; it currently looks more like a bottoming phase.

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Today's session isn't strong, but it's a bit steadier than the past two days. BTC is hovering around 76,800, at least it hasn't continued to plunge; ETH and SOL have also seen slight recoveries, but it's not yet a true strengthening. What I think is most worth noting today isn't how much it has risen, but that the market has finally shifted from "pure defense" to "wait and see". Additionally, trading volume has increased by over 48%, which is quite significant. But increased volume doesn't mean the market has started to rally; we still need to see if prices continue to move upward. The current real state of the market looks more like: Bears are taking a breather first, bulls haven't truly taken over yet. So my current view is simple: This is not a confirmed reversal, more like a period of observing a stop in the decline. Next, the key focus is whether BTC can leverage the increased volume to firmly hold above 77,000.

Today's market is still defensive, and it has already started to grind downward. BTC has dropped to around 76,000, ETH is even weaker, and altcoins overall show little desire to counterattack. I think the most frustrating thing now is not a big drop, but this daily pattern of weakening, cooling off, and grinding. In this kind of market, the most common outcome is not opportunity, but misjudgment. Because you always think 'it's about time for a rebound,' but the market just keeps drifting down. The current structure is also very clear: BTC is weak, ETH is weaker, altcoins show no rotation, only TRX, with its old group-holding logic, is still holding strong. This indicates that market funds are still on defense, not on the offense. So my current view is simple: the focus ahead is not on guessing where the biggest rebound will be, but first to see if BTC can hold around 76,000. Short-term remains bearish; in this environment, avoid impulsiveness and wait for confirmation.