Iran's Hormuz Threat Is the Oil Risk Nobody Priced In Trump said the US-Iran deal was "basically done" on May 23-24. Markets partially believed it. Oil softened, the geopolitical risk premium started unwinding, and crypto briefly got some breathing room. Then Iran's parliament chair claimed "permanent control of Hormuz Strait shipping." That erased a lot of goodwill pretty quickly. The Hormuz Strait moves around 20 million barrels per day, close to 20% of global oil supply. That's not a theoretical chokepoint, it's the chokepoint. Any credible disruption there reprices energy globally, which reprices inflation expectations, which eventually hits risk assets including crypto. BTC doesn't trade in isolation from macro, and oil spiking with inflationary pressure behind it is not a friendly backdrop. Here's the tension worth watching: nuclear talks are apparently still open. Sanctions relief is still on the table. If a deal closes, oil drops and macro gets friendlier for BTC. But Iran's parliament staking out Hormuz control days after a ceasefire signal isn't an accident. That's either a negotiating move, domestic politics, or both. My read: the risk premium that got priced out is going back in. Oil's 1.4% move on May 28 was the first adjustment, probably not the last. If Iran keeps testing limits, BTC faces fresh macro pressure through the same channel it always does when energy costs spike. The nuclear talks are the real signal to watch. What do you think? Share your views in the comment section #IranHormuzTensions $CL @OKX Orbit $BTC $SPACEX