Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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First of all, happy Pizza Day to all my friends! Whether you eat pizza or not is not important; what matters is understanding the sentiment towards holding Bitcoin. It’s precisely because of this day that I’m constantly reminded to try not to sell my $BTC. That’s what I’ve done—from the first time I bought Bitcoin until now, I have never sold any. This might be my most stubborn belief, though it may not necessarily be right, especially after going through several rollercoaster rides.
But if I had been afraid of the rollercoaster from the start and chose to sell, I really don’t know if I would still have these Bitcoins now. I might have been shaken out at some point. Having a bit of faith is good after all.
Today has been full of twists and turns. The issues between the US and Iran have been pushing to the limit. The Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open, but I heard that the US and Iran have reached an agreement, and the final result will be announced in a few hours. After this news came out, WTI prices have fallen back below $97. The market has chosen to believe it.
Hopefully, this is for real. I’ve also seen some data showing that the American public is very dissatisfied with Trump now. The inexplicable strikes against Iran have caused US inflation to rise, and data shows Trump’s approval rating is declining. This must be very painful for Trump, who is determined to achieve big things, especially with less than half a year until the midterm elections.
Back to Bitcoin data, I still stick to my judgment: the current price of $BTC still depends on the mood of the US stock market, and the US stock market depends on the US economy and political stance. So if many people think they will see Bitcoin at $60,000 or even lower, that means the US stock market will also experience a significant pullback.
At least from the current data, BTC is still very healthy. More investors are leaning towards long-term holding, and short-term trading investors are decreasing.
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Phyrex.Ni
Today's market is actually quite clear. The main reason for the rise is the indication from the US and Iran that an agreement might be reached. But honestly, this optimism mainly comes from the US side; I haven't seen any related content in Iranian media, so it might just be a unilateral victory announcement from the US or Trump, with Iran not cooperating at all.
Although the US stock market has driven Bitcoin up, and both WTI and Brent have declined, there is no information about Iran allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On the contrary, Iran is still setting its own regulations for managing the Strait of Hormuz, which makes it hard for me to be optimistic in advance, as such back-and-forth has happened too many times.
Of course, there is no better approach at the moment. So far, my short position on WTI has started to show paper profits, and the liquidation price has consistently stayed above $120. The funding rate is not high now, so I can hold on for two more days to see how it goes. I still believe that even if the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open, it won't take too long.
The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes released today also address this issue. Many Fed officials are starting to consider re-evaluating rate hikes if inflation continues to rise. This is the biggest challenge for Trump. With Walsh in charge, there's no talk of rate cuts; with oil prices this high, rate cuts are impossible unless Trump can completely resolve the Strait of Hormuz issue.
Moreover, the inflation caused by the Strait of Hormuz issue is not just affecting the US; most countries worldwide, including China, are impacted. Therefore, pressure on Iran will be comprehensive, and the longer this drags on, the worse it is for Iran.
Back to Bitcoin data, I have always maintained that more investors are shifting to long-term holding. Currently, the $BTC price is mainly determined by short-term investors, and what influences short-term investors is the US macro environment, politics, and economy. Although today's meeting minutes are not good, as long as we see talks between the US and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz open, these issues won't matter.
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Over 60% of Americans oppose war with Iran, Trump's approval rating declines
Opposition to a US-Israel war with Iran is rising in the United States, and with deepening economic issues, this is putting greater pressure on Trump.
A new Fox News poll shows that 60% of Americans now oppose the war, up from 55% last month, with 91% believing the conflict is causing economic turmoil.
These numbers increase the political troubles Trump faces as dissatisfaction with the economy continues to grow. More than three-quarters of respondents say the economic situation is bad, with 77% calling it very bad, up from 73% last month and 71% a year ago.
Discontent with Trump's handling of the economy has also risen sharply, climbing from 56% a year ago to 71% now.
The president's overall approval rating continues to decline, with 61% of Americans disapproving of his performance.
Phyrex.Ni
Trump stated that the United States wants the Strait of Hormuz to be free and without passage fees
When asked about Iran's proposal to impose passage fees in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "We are reviewing this proposal."
"As you know, we have achieved complete control over the Strait of Hormuz through a blockade. The blockade has been 100% effective. No one can pass through it; it is like a steel wall," the U.S. president told reporters.
Meanwhile, Iran's Quds Force Navy stated that 31 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
"We want it to be free; we do not want passage fees. It is international; this is an international waterway," Trump said during a press conference at the White House when discussing the strait.
This is what I mentioned yesterday: don’t just listen to what the US says unilaterally. Right now, the US is claiming victory on its own, but Iran is completely uncooperative. Up to now, the Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open, so during the day today, WTI prices rebounded back above $100.
The main issue now is not knowing which information is true and which is false. So my view is simple: short at the high levels. Once it rises above $100, I will add to my position, keeping the liquidation point always adjusted above $120. Also, Binance’s funding rate is not high anymore, so it’s more sustainable and less risky.
The first phase target is around $90.
Phyrex.Ni
I no longer believe anyone who talks about how the US and Iran are negotiating. I only watch the oil prices. As long as WTI oil prices don't drop, everything said is meaningless. Oil prices are currently the most important indicator for measuring US-Iran relations.
I've been shorting WTI for a while now. Fortunately, Binance's funding rate has been adjusted, and luckily I settled once before; otherwise, holding on until now would have left me with nowhere to cry.
The strategy of shorting WTI on rallies is definitely correct, but you must pay attention to the funding rate. To save costs, you can short through brokers, which is the cheapest option but hard to leverage. If you're only shorting at 1x leverage, the best choice is still through brokers.
However, if you want leverage, exchanges are indeed more convenient.
Trump stated that the United States wants the Strait of Hormuz to be free and without passage fees
When asked about Iran's proposal to impose passage fees in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "We are reviewing this proposal."
"As you know, we have achieved complete control over the Strait of Hormuz through a blockade. The blockade has been 100% effective. No one can pass through it; it is like a steel wall," the U.S. president told reporters.
Meanwhile, Iran's Quds Force Navy stated that 31 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
"We want it to be free; we do not want passage fees. It is international; this is an international waterway," Trump said during a press conference at the White House when discussing the strait.
After watching what Michael said, I felt deeply touched. Actually, recently many friends have been chatting with me about ethereum:native related matters. Maybe it's a case of birds of a feather flocking together; many of my close friends still hold a large amount of ETH.
From my personal perspective, first of all, I am still regularly investing in ETH and have no plans to stop. My attitude towards ETH is very simple: on one hand, it is the cryptocurrency at the forefront of compliance.
Although there are now more than a dozen tokens that have passed the US spot ETF, only two have significant trading volume in the entire US with participation from institutions at the level of BlackRock: one is bitcoin:native and the other is ethereum:native.
When I invest regularly, I have one viewpoint: whether I am right or not is not important; what matters is that I believe BlackRock is right. In fact, this is the conclusion I have reached. So far, the largest capital flow in the cryptocurrency field comes from BlackRock investors.
Besides the brand endorsement, although the technical field hasn't been discussed much for a long time, I have seen too many public chains claiming to be Ethereum killers, boasting better performance and lower gas fees. But today, ETH is still the most Turing-complete public chain, the most decentralized public chain, and the public chain with the strongest consensus and development.
On the contrary, I think ETH's biggest problem is the ETH Foundation. The biggest gap between Vitalik and Satoshi is that he hasn't let go yet. The day the ETH Foundation no longer exists, ETH might have better development.
Of course, from a price perspective, it is indeed cooling off now, but I still believe that when liquidity recovers, ETH will not perform too poorly.
Last month, the chipmunk went to the food court alone and used a water cup to save a seat, one of those really big water cups. In the food court, it's basically common to use a water cup, napkin, or some small item to save a seat.
But when the chipmunk got the food, they found their water cup had been taken by someone else. It's almost impossible to mistake it for someone else's, and losing small items like this in the food court happens frequently.
Stealing directly from you might not happen often, but taking things directly from the table is quite common.
danny
Although Singapore is safe, it's still quite a distance from being truly honest and upright～
Here's roughly what happened: I was on a business trip and flew ✈️ back to Singapore.
Just before getting off the plane (the plane had already stopped), I suddenly remembered a call and wanted to find my AirPods (usually kept in my pocket), but no matter how hard I looked, I couldn't find them.
I even asked the flight attendants to make an announcement asking passengers if anyone had seen them, but of course, no one responded.
I thought maybe I was just too tired and hallucinating, or that I had put the AirPods somewhere else by mistake.
After I finished my work, I started searching all over my house but still couldn't find them, then I remembered to open Apple's Find My.
And guess what... they were 10 km away, right here in Singapore 🤣
The good news is I wasn't hallucinating—they were indeed taken by someone.
The bad news is these AirPods were a gift from an old friend and have been with me for three years... sigh.
I activated Lost Contact—hopefully he/she will reach out to me in the next few days, otherwise, I wouldn't mind dropping by to check 🤣😄
Today's market is actually quite clear. The main reason for the rise is the indication from the US and Iran that an agreement might be reached. But honestly, this optimism mainly comes from the US side; I haven't seen any related content in Iranian media, so it might just be a unilateral victory announcement from the US or Trump, with Iran not cooperating at all.
Although the US stock market has driven Bitcoin up, and both WTI and Brent have declined, there is no information about Iran allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On the contrary, Iran is still setting its own regulations for managing the Strait of Hormuz, which makes it hard for me to be optimistic in advance, as such back-and-forth has happened too many times.
Of course, there is no better approach at the moment. So far, my short position on WTI has started to show paper profits, and the liquidation price has consistently stayed above $120. The funding rate is not high now, so I can hold on for two more days to see how it goes. I still believe that even if the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open, it won't take too long.
The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes released today also address this issue. Many Fed officials are starting to consider re-evaluating rate hikes if inflation continues to rise. This is the biggest challenge for Trump. With Walsh in charge, there's no talk of rate cuts; with oil prices this high, rate cuts are impossible unless Trump can completely resolve the Strait of Hormuz issue.
Moreover, the inflation caused by the Strait of Hormuz issue is not just affecting the US; most countries worldwide, including China, are impacted. Therefore, pressure on Iran will be comprehensive, and the longer this drags on, the worse it is for Iran.
Back to Bitcoin data, I have always maintained that more investors are shifting to long-term holding. Currently, the $BTC price is mainly determined by short-term investors, and what influences short-term investors is the US macro environment, politics, and economy. Although today's meeting minutes are not good, as long as we see talks between the US and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz open, these issues won't matter.
#Bitget VIP access is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
It's been over 75 days, right? I believe even Trump didn't expect the US-Iran geopolitical conflict to last this long. He’s probably regretting it deeply now, but since it has happened, it needs to be resolved as soon as possible. Although Vance said today that the negotiations with Iran have achieved some results, the market no longer believes the 'wolf is coming' story. The current market is just watching the oil price; if oil prices don’t come down, it means inflation cannot be eased.
From the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy has intensified the blockade of Iranian ports and today expelled some ships attempting to approach Iran. This is a significant blow to Iran’s shadow fleet. So, when neither side wants to escalate attacks, they are choking each other, and it’s a matter of who runs out of breath first. But Hormuz is not just about oil; it also involves food and fertilizer.
Therefore, the longer this lasts, the more disadvantageous it is for Iran. Considering their own interests, Europe and Asia may both urge Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone understands the reasoning, but it’s really unclear how long Iran can hold out. The last IEA report said until the end of May, and there are still 10 days left. Hopefully, it can be resolved.
Back to Bitcoin data, with the US stock market falling, $BTC is indeed oscillating downward, but it’s clear that the decline in Bitcoin is slowing down. This is mainly because short-term turnover investors are decreasing, and more investors prefer to hold long-term. Most investors also know that the current decline is caused by the US-Iran standoff, and once the war ends, the probability of a rebound will be very high.
So, there is no sign of massive investor sell-off, and daily turnover is not intense. Investors are still maintaining a rational attitude for now.
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Unconsciously, I've been following this show for almost four years. Although it's not the show I've followed the longest, it should be my favorite American series in the past five years, almost without equal.
From the very first episode of the first season, it captivated me. It's now in its fourth and final season. I highly recommend it. The show is called "FROM," produced by MGM+.
It's a horror series that really tests human nature. The bloody scenes are rated 18+. Even now, the main storyline is still unclear. Yes, even though the finale is coming up soon, no one really knows what the whole show is about. It's that bizarre, but that's exactly what makes it so captivating.
None of the cast are very famous or particularly outstanding in appearance, but their character performances are excellent. The whole series feels like a puzzle-solving game where the characters are chased by monsters, and no one knows what the mystery really is.
Highly recommended!! This should be my second most recommended American series. The first one is called "Shameless."
I no longer believe anyone who talks about how the US and Iran are negotiating. I only watch the oil prices. As long as WTI oil prices don't drop, everything said is meaningless. Oil prices are currently the most important indicator for measuring US-Iran relations.
I've been shorting WTI for a while now. Fortunately, Binance's funding rate has been adjusted, and luckily I settled once before; otherwise, holding on until now would have left me with nowhere to cry.
The strategy of shorting WTI on rallies is definitely correct, but you must pay attention to the funding rate. To save costs, you can short through brokers, which is the cheapest option but hard to leverage. If you're only shorting at 1x leverage, the best choice is still through brokers.
However, if you want leverage, exchanges are indeed more convenient.
By now, the data for $ETH and bitcoin:native have become very similar in structure. Most retail investors who chase rallies and sell on dips have already exited, leaving mostly BlackRock investors engaging in short-term trading. Even the short-term selling volume from BlackRock investors is decreasing.
This situation aligns with the long-term holder and high-net-worth position data we've recently reviewed. More traditional investors have reduced their chase-and-sell behavior in crypto and have shifted towards long-term holding. If their goal is short-term, they likely prefer U.S. stocks.
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Phyrex.Ni
On Monday, the data for $ETH spot ETFs continued to be poor, which was expected since investors chasing rallies and selling during downturns are gradually exiting. However, it is quite similar to Friday's expectations; except for a significant reduction in investors from BlackRock, other institutional investors have not reduced their holdings much.
It's not that other institutional investors have higher awareness, but rather that short-term investors have mostly left. Especially in the past two weeks, Fidelity's investors have been exiting about 5% of their holdings daily, and even now, daily sell-offs are around 1% of the holdings.
Other institutions are even less active. For the market to warm up again, we still need to see the complete resolution of the conflict between the US and Iran.
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