007-八戒

Closed my position, pocketed the profits, now watching from the sidelines. That big bearish candle this morning dropped sharply; I thought it would sweep down to 76000-76200. But 76500 held for 4 hours without breaking, the main force didn’t push down—okay, that’s the answer, the buyers are there. But the push up wasn’t from new longs, it was shorts covering. Open Interest dropped from 99800 to 99000, yet the price rose—the shorts covering pushed it up, so the upward momentum is limited. At 76900, sell orders are pressing with 33 BTC, while buy orders are only 0.5 BTC; when spot price rises, someone sells, contracts try to pull up but can’t. The main force will most likely sweep down first to 76400-76500 to trigger stop-loss orders stacked there, then decide the direction after the shakeout. Short on the rebound at 77000-77100, target 76000-76200. BTC short direction Entry: 77000-77100 Take profit: 76050 (intraday) Add position: 77500 Stop loss: ? Personal opinion for reference only

76600 was hovering near the profit-taking level just last night. The short position at 76500 has been closed, profits secured, now looking at the next move. At 08:00, that 1-hour big bearish candle smashed from 77300 directly down to 76500, with a volume of over 7800 BTC traded—this is not retail investors cutting losses, the force was too strong. After the drop, volume shrank and price moved sideways, active buying didn’t keep up, the rebound lacked volume. The active buy/sell volume ratio suddenly flipped bearish between 09:25-09:30, someone was actively dumping at this level. Open interest remained unchanged, positions are on hold. Large holders’ long-short ratio is 1.12, slightly bullish, but no additional positions were added. My judgment: Many bulls just took profits around 76500-76600, stop-loss orders are stacked near 76000-76200. The main force will most likely sweep down first to clear these orders, then decide the direction. No chasing longs now, wait for it to drop. Look for a wick, volume spike, and quick pullback near 76000-76200, then confirm before going long again. #加息重回讨论桌：机构信号集体转弱 $BTC

Last night's post, you must take profit and exit

77730, arrived. Last time I said 77800 is resistance, a window for short sellers to add positions—now it's right here. This wave was pulled up from a 76100 wick, pushing all the way to around 77800, but the OI didn't increase; open interest actually shrank. This indicates the rally is driven by short covering, not genuine new long positions. The driving force is nearly exhausted. Just now, the 15M candle volume surged to 133, pushing to 77807, then closed lower. Taker ratio is 0.82, sellers are starting to dominate. Structurally, 77800 keeps getting wicks above but can't close higher—there are dense sell orders above, and the main force shows no intention to break through. I'm bearish, waiting for this 15M candle to close confirming it can't hold, then I'll open a short. BTC short position Entry: 77800 Take profit: 76700-76500 (intraday) Add position: 78200 Stop loss: ? Personal opinion for reference only

Last night, I went long at 761, and today I exited at 771, feeling relieved. Now I’m holding the short position, looking at this structure — from a spike at 76100, it was pushed up all the way to around 77200, with OI steadily shrinking, indicating this rally is mainly driven by short covering, not genuine new long positions. The momentum is almost exhausted. At 77200, active sell volume starts to increase; just now, the 15M candle surged to 77200 then pulled back, with a buy/sell ratio of 0.84, sellers are dominating. I expect a pullback here first; 77200-77300 is the resistance zone for this move, if it can’t break through, it will head down. But I’m not in a hurry to add shorts, I’ll wait for a pullback near 765. There are many long stop losses stacked below 765; if the main players want to hunt again, they’ll sweep down first before pushing up. That sweep is the real opportunity to add longs. I have a target at 778 — if it surges directly there, short stop losses are dense, and the main players will likely sweep them. At 778, I’ll short with a target to pull back to 765. For now, just wait, don’t chase. Don’t rush to add positions when trading both sides.

The long position has already completed at 77100, I'll say it again: I operate both ways, showing unrealized losses doesn't mean I'm losing, just look at the overall return rate! It's been hovering above 77000 for almost an hour. At 18:15, that spike hit 77600, volume increased tenfold, but no one caught it at the top, volume shrank and it came back down. Seeing this structure, I felt there was no chance above — pushing up with such huge volume but failing to hold means heavy selling pressure above. Afterwards, OI dropped from 101422 to 100916 continuously for nearly an hour, positions are being withdrawn. The active sell volume has consistently outweighed the buy volume, shorts are dominating. Now it's hovering around 77000, three 15-minute bearish candles pressing down, at 20:30 a small bullish rebound with volume only 927, no new funds following. My short position is still open, waiting for 76500. The long stop-loss orders left from this morning's rally haven't been triggered yet, I judge the main force is going to make a move. Waiting for it to break. Big stage of Bajie, if you're trapped, come on over

When I say it, I deliver. 77000 has been broken. This afternoon I said the main force would sweep the stop losses below, and now it's happening. Just now, the 1-hour OI surged by 2500 BTC—not retail investors cutting losses, but someone actively pushing down. Around 76500, I closed half of my short positions, keeping the other half. 76000 is the next level I'm watching. Hunting like this, once it's done, it's done—the more aggressively shorts add positions now, the more fuel there is for a short squeeze later. Near 76000, if there's a wick that pulls back, I'll be ready to flip long. 78200, it will go there again. Big stage for Bajie, if you're trapped, come on over

77400, been consolidating all day. Today, after releasing 100M volume without dropping, I actually feel something's off here—if it were really going to drop, it would have already. This volume grinding here looks more like it's setting stop-loss orders below. My judgment: below 77000, there have been several days of long stop-loss accumulation; the main force is very likely going to sweep through them. But after the sweep? Shorts have added too much, and the fuel for a short squeeze is also accumulating. First break below 77000 to hunt stops, then reverse and push up—at 78200, I think it will go there again. Right now, I’m not chasing shorts or longs, waiting for the signal that the hunt is complete. I’m not the one in a hurry. At Bajie Grand Stage, if you’re trapped, come here. Currently, I’m locked in position, waiting for either 769 or 782 to be reached first

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Currently around 77900, the short position has already been entered. I am trading both directions; the long position has already been closed. Please refer to the posted content, otherwise you won't understand the position sizing. I have been waiting for a rebound around 78000. Since rising from 76000, the volume of each K-line has been shrinking, and it can't push past around 78000. I checked the Open Interest (OI); during the rebound, positions are decreasing—not new longs pushing it up, but shorts closing positions driving it. I don't trust this kind of rebound. Whenever the spot price rises, someone sells; the futures can't be pushed up, and the funding rate is still positive, meaning longs are paying fees, but the price just won't go up. 55% of retail traders are long, while big players haven't moved. I've seen this combination many times before, and the subsequent pattern is basically the same. Stop-loss orders have been piling up above 78000-78200 for several days. The main force will either sweep upwards here once before pushing down or directly suppress it. I lean towards direct suppression—this rebound is too weak, with no reason for a rally. Short positions are placed in batches near 78000, targeting around 76000, and if it goes lower, looking at the liquidity pool near 75000. --- BTC short direction Entry: 77800-78000 Take profit: 75900 Add position: 78300-78500 Stop loss: ? Personal opinion, for reference only. Investment involves risks; trade cautiously.