分析师 Young

Countdown to the World Cup starting in June, market milestones are getting closer This week, the overall market weakened and remained under pressure, but $CHZ bucked the trend yesterday with an independent move, rising slightly by about 5%, showing strong resistance to decline However, the overall strength was not impressive, lacking explosive volume Today, took profit and sold most of the position around 0.0481 The thematic expectation remains, but market momentum is average, coupled with a weak overall market, so no rush to speculate in the short term Will continue to stay on the sidelines for now, waiting for clearer trend signals

Recently researched $NEAR and found it has huge potential It was once a project heavily held by VCs, but all VC shares have now been fully unlocked. It is currently the only mainstream public chain without large-scale unlocking sell pressure Early tokens have all been unlocked, so there is no risk of large-scale dumping later With all tokens circulating and no sell pressure, institutions have quietly started accumulating: 1. Bitwise continues to hold, Coinbase/Circle staking exceeds one million tokens 2. Goldman Sachs is also making moves, with clear on-chain buying signals 3. This has driven simultaneous increases in perpetual and DEX trading volumes, showing obvious capital inflow $NEAR is now positioned as the exclusive settlement layer for the AI agent economy, launching AI-related products like Confidential Intents and IronClaw. The NEARCON conference even attracted giants like OpenAI and Google Unlike some projects just riding the AI narrative, this one has real ecological implementation So in the AI sector, besides $TAO, $NEAR is my second most favored target No sell pressure + institutional accumulation + new AI narrative triple buff combined, worth paying close attention to during the bear market

$BTC intraday surged to 78200 but failed to hold above it Tonight, after the US market opened, the price directly plunged to the 76700 range This is a key battleground between bulls and bears, with the bulls' momentum insufficient At this stage, it is no longer recommended to enter long positions, as the situation remains unclear A cautious approach is to wait and observe, waiting for the market to give a clear direction Just have a good rest tonight!

Recently, I have been deeply researching $HYPE, which will also be the target for continuous buying in this cycle. The current price still has at least five times the potential—$150. The most impressive aspect of $HYPE is its token mechanism—97% of the transaction fee revenue is directly used to buy back HYPE. What does this mean? As long as there is trading volume on Hyperliquid, there will be continuous buying pressure. Currently, Hyperliquid's perpetual contract daily trading volume is about $8 billion, and the annualized protocol revenue has reached $1.2-1.3 billion. Based on the current HYPE market cap of about $10 billion, the market cap to buyback ratio is only around 8.5 times. Honestly, this valuation multiple is not expensive in the DeFi sector. The target price of $150 is calculated based on the following logic (my own calculations): Assuming the on-chain perpetual contract market continues to expand (which is a certain trend), and the total perpetual DEX trading volume reaches three times the current level, with Hyperliquid's market share increasing to about 40%: · Annualized buyback amount could reach $6.68 billion · At an 8.5x valuation, the market cap would be about $56.8 billion · Considering the ongoing burn mechanism (already burned 11% of circulating supply), the circulating tokens decrease, providing stronger price support · The calculated price range is $160-$180 $150 is not a random guess; it is a reasonable value within this model. Moreover, this does not yet account for the additional deflationary effect from gas consumption after HyperEVM launches. Fundamentals also support this judgment: 1. Protocol revenue is real: Hyperliquid's 2025 trading volume is about $2.6 trillion, nearly twice that of Coinbase. This is not wash trading; there is genuine trading demand. 2. Deflation is happening: The aid fund buys back 1.4 million HYPE daily, and the foundation has already burned 11% of the circulating supply, continuously shrinking supply. 3. Institutions are entering: Hyperliquid DAT recently bought 5 million HYPE at an average price of $25.9, spending $129.5 million. A suspected Multicoin-related address also increased holdings by 355,000 HYPE. This is not retail FOMO; smart money is positioning. 4. Product matrix is expanding: HIP-4 is entering prediction markets, gold and silver perpetual futures are launching, and Ripple Prime integration brings institutional liquidity—Hyperliquid is evolving from "a DEX" into "the infrastructure for all tradable assets on-chain." What about the time dimension? Cantor Fitzgerald predicts $200 by 2035, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. My view is a bit more optimistic: with the arrival of the super cycle in 2026, HYPE reaching $150-$180 is entirely possible. After all, it is just over $30 now, so the space is there. Risks must also be acknowledged: · A decline in trading volume would directly weaken the buyback logic · Competing chains (Sui, Aptos, etc.) are also developing derivatives DEXs · Regulatory uncertainty always exists But overall, HYPE is one of the few assets in this cycle with the logic of "real revenue + continuous buyback + institutional allocation." $150 is not the end; it is the first visible target.