US-Iran negotiations are reportedly the closest they’ve been to a breakthrough since the war began. Both sides are working toward a one-page memorandum of understanding that would declare an end to hostilities and kick off a 30-day window for detailed talks covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and — critically — the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has held transit restrictions on the Strait since early March; in exchange, the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. For crypto markets, this is the single most important geopolitical variable right now. The Iran war was a key driver pushing headline PCE to 3.5% and putting Fed rate hikes back on the table. A credible deal that reopens the Strait would pull energy prices lower, ease inflation fears, and potentially remove the rate hike threat — a scenario that would be broadly risk-on. BTC trades at ~$77,854 today, ETH at ~$2,192. The main sticking point remains Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which Washington wants dismantled. Whether that’s achievable in 30 days remains an open question. If the US and Iran close a deal and reopen the Strait, do you think that’s enough to send BTC back above $90K — or are rate hike fears already too deeply baked in? Just sharing my thoughts. Not financial advice. DYOR. #USIranTalksProgress